90 percent gas pipeline property tax cut will be a hard sell
Glenfarne announced on January 22 that it was shifting from “development into early execution” of the gas pipeline, just in time for two top executives to be applauded that night as guests at Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s final State of the State address.
“Early execution” is otherwise known as “development,” but the company can create the illusion of a new stage in operations for political and marketing purposes with bafflegab.
The press release is an unmatched exercise of name-dropping. It lists company after company that might build a pipeline, might invest money and might buy gas if conditions are right.
But there are no definitive construction agreements and no one is ordering pipe. There are proposed agreements and potential contracts of all shapes and sizes.
Some politicians, including gubernatorial candidate and former AG Tregarrick Taylor, are claiming that Glenfarne has thus announced that it will build the pipeline.
“So amazing news Alaska. Glenfarne just announced that Phase one of the Alaska gasline project is a go. Phase one is the in-state portion of that line, so they’ll be supplying gas to Alaska communities, to Alaska businesses. Big part of that is sales agreement for gas from Exxon on the North Slope and Hilcorp as well. Apparently the Conoco contract is still in the works for that gas sale. But this is fabulous news for all of you Alaskans that have been waiting for this infrastructure project to go for many, many, many years,” Taylor said on social media on January 22.
He should read the fine print. Phase one is not a go.
Over the past year Alaska politicians have repeatedly said that Glenfarne would have made a final investment decision and say it is ready to go before now. All of those predictions have proven to be wrong.
On May 12, 2025, Dunleavy said a final investment decision to go was to have been made last fall.
"You could see the pipe being built next summer (2026), into the following year,” he said, with gas flowing in 2028-2029.
A month earlier Dunleavy said on Fox News that the pipeline would be supplying gas to Cook Inlet by October 2027.
And to the catalog of things that are not going to happen, add this: Sen. Dan Sullivan claimed to Fox News on April 10, 2025 that “We’re talking about laying pipe as early as the end of this year, the beginning of next year.”
“And it’s got President Trump’s name all over it, cause if it happens, it will be largely due to him,” Sullivan said.
The Alaska Gasline Development Corp. now says that Glenfarne will make a go or no-go decision in March. The first pipe might be installed by the end of the year. I doubt it.
As I wrote here last spring, Dunleavy and Sullivan have swallowed the notion that Trump’s mob-boss mentality will succeed and he will be able to force Japan, Korea, Taiwan and other nations to pay tens of billions for the pipeline. If they don’t, he will retaliate with higher tariffs.
In his State of the State speech, Dunleavy said: “President Trump said, and I quote, that he has secured ‘unprecedented funding’ from South Korea and Japan through his trade deals to develop the Alaska LNG Project.”
Glenfarne will announce it has decided to build the pipeline if and when the alleged “unprecedented funding” from South Korea and Japan is found.
Right now, Glenfarne and Dunleavy are trying to build political pressure to get the Legislature to approve a 90 percent reduction in property taxes for the pipeline, a hefty chunk of which would be given up by local governments.
The property tax total on the project would be close to $760 million a year, which makes the project uneconomic, Glenfarne and the state say. I have no idea what the right tax number is that would make the project economic.
No one in Alaska will have a clue unless the company is more forthcoming about such things as the real cost of the project, formerly estimated at $44 billion. Glenfarne says the new number is a secret. If the company wants a tax cut, it should be more transparent.
The strongarm push will be that if the Legislature declines to give the 90 percent tax cut, the project will die and it will be the fault of the Legislature and greedy local governments.
The pressure will be increased with Glenfarne saying it can’t possible make a positive final investment decision in March without legislative action. Legislators will be asked if they want to be responsible for killing the gasline dream. The proper response should be, why 90? Why not 50 or 40?
It is certain that Glenfarne will want what’s best for Glenfarne.
Dunleavy announced his support for the 90 percent tax cut in December, but he has yet to introduce a bill to enact the reduction. He should explain who chose that figure and why. It’s probably just what Glenfarne asked for.
Regarding the proposed Alaska tax cut, the governor has been lobbying the borough governments of Kenai, Mat-Su, Denali, Fairbanks and the North Slope.
The state and four of those local governments, except Fairbanks, have a great deal of money riding on the outcome. Fairbanks is left out because only two miles of the proposed pipeline would be within the Fairbanks borough.
Glenfarne is paying Legislative Consultants LLC, owned by Heather Brakes and Wendy Chamberlain, $120,000 a month to lobby state government, according to the Alaska Public Offices Commission.
This is the highest monthly payment, by far, of any entity lobbying the Legislature, according to the APOC. I have asked the APOC to make sure that $120,000 is a monthly fee, not an annual fee.
Here is the 2026 lobbying summary that shows who is paying to influence state policy.
Getting the 90 percent tax cut approved will require more information from Glenfarne and Dunleavy than has been released to date.
The campaign will fall flat unless Dunleavy and his subordinates do a much better job of selling it than they have with the so-called fiscal plan.
We still don’t know where the money to build this pipeline would come from. Is the dream that Trump will be able to strongarm Japan and Korea to pay the bills, as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has repeatedly claimed?
“Alaska pipeline, scale, $50 billion, $100 billion, Donald Trump wants to unleash the Alaska pipelines. The Japanese will finance it. And it’s great for America. It’s fantastic,” Lutnick said last fall.
It looks like an Alaska pipeline shakedown by the tariff king, but the pipeline is not on the list of the top projects the Japanese are considering right now. Lutnick has claimed to the Japanese that the projects will have virtually no risk. It is hard for anyone to make that claim about the Alaska LNG project.
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