Dunleavy says his 2025 gasline forecast flopped because of ‘calculations'

In a dumb diatribe against Sens. Bill Wielechowski and Cathy Giessel Thursday, Gov. Mike Dunleavy stumbled over an answer of sorts about why his gasline predictions from last fall turned out to be so wrong.

“Calculations,” he said.

It was during a GOP Fairbanks fundraiser on November 29, 2025 that Dunleavy gave his glowing gasline forecast: Glenfarne would announce in January 2026 that it would build the pipeline.

“I talk with Glenfarne every week. I talk with the president and his people often. Everyone is excited about where this pipeline is gonna go. In terms of it’s gonna happen,” Dunleavy said.

“Spoken to them again yesterday, they see nothing standing in the way. So when February, or when January comes, you’re probably gonna see an announcement before the end of January that they’re gonna start to order pipe. And it’ll be here by August of this next year,” Dunleavy said last November. “So you will have gas.”

The Republican crowd applauded upon hearing that all systems were go for Glenfarne and that pieces of pipe would be stacking up in Alaska this summer. This was not the first time Dunleavy said the coast was clear.

“I believe you’re going to see a gasline,” Dunleavy said on November 12, 2025 to the Resource Development Council.

This was the event at which Dunleavy compared gasline skeptics to Doubting Thomas.

“There’s some incredible announcements that are going to be made over the next two months that I think will prove what I just said to be correct,” Dunleavy said.

On Thursday, Mark Sabbatini of the Juneau Independent asked repeatedly, after Dunleavy spoke to the public with GOP legislators, why Dunleavy was incorrect.

“You were saying last November everything’s ready to do,” Sabbatini said, according to a recording made by Alaska Public Media reporter Eric Stone. Alaska Beacon reporter James Brooks also took part in the questioning.

Dunleavy, Glenfarne, Sen. Dan Sullivan, Rep. Nick Begich the Third and others made many comments in 2025 that the pipeline was ready to be built.

On April 10, 2025, Sen. Dan Sullivan claimed to Fox News that “We’re talking about laying pipe as early as the end of this year, the beginning of next year. Think about the jobs that would come with that.”

“And it’s got President Trump’s name all over it, cause if it happens, it will be largely due to him,” Sullivan said. The project “makes complete sense” just from a business perspective, said Sullivan.

(Dunleavy, Sullivan and Begich appeared to be certain that Trump’s name would produce billions or tens of billions and solve every financial problem. They still are hoping that Trump will decide to help pay for the project and claim it is a matter of national security.)

Brendan Duval, the CEO of Glenfarne, showed this slide to the Resource Development Council on November 12, 2025 listing the top 10 upcoming milestones for the Alaska LNG project. It did not include a change in state tax law as a necessity.

On Thursday, in response to questions from Sabbatini and Brooks, Dunleavy said “calculations” took place late last year that showed a problem with the state’s tax system on oil and gas properties.

This was a few minutes after Dunleavy asked reporters to quote him calling Wielechowski a “bullshitter.”

“The calculations were done that this would be $1 billion to $1.4 billion and would be an issue for financing because you would be charged, you would be paying tax before gas is even flowing,” said Dunleavy.

“But what did change since November?” Sabbatini asked.

“Calculations. Calculations. And those guys having discussions with folks that are going to finance the project that over a billion dollars would be taken out even before gas is moving,” Dunleavy said.

These are “calculations” that Glenfarne was not aware of when it agreed to take on one of the largest infrastructure projects in the United States?

These are “calculations” that the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation was not aware of when AGDC President Frank Richards testified to the Legislature on April 9, 2025? Richards said a tax break would be nice, but not essential.

“There’s no consideration for property taxes. The existing statutes are what are in place and will be abided by,” Richards told the Legislature. AGDC board member Mike Chenault said something similar: "I believe that if the Legislature gets involved that this project will go away.”

We are now supposed to believe that this tax system, created before the trans-Alaska oil pipeline was built, came as a surprise to Glenfarne, the governor and his staff, AGDC and our congressional delegation.

The “calculations” were brought to their attention by the “folks that are going to finance the project.”

Is this gullibility, incompetence, deception or a combination?

The need to change the property tax system to allow a gas pipeline is not a new issue. That has been discussed for decades. Oil is a much more valuable commodity and the law was created for the oil pipeline.

The lack of due diligence by Dunleavy and his staff is inexplicable.

All of this should force Alaskans to examine Glenfarne’s real capabilities, preparations and its varied claims about the future. Not to mention the “Build the Line!” propaganda campaign.

Your contributions help support independent analysis and political commentary by Alaska reporter and author Dermot Cole. Thank you for reading and for your support. Either click here to use PayPal or send checks to: Dermot Cole, Box 10673, Fairbanks, AK 99710-0673.